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Alarmism Taints Global Warming Discussion

By Richard Larsen
 
Published – Idaho State Journal, 04/27/08
 
It really should not be surprising that Earth Day would be celebrated on Lenin’s birthday. After all, it would appear at least ostensibly that Lenin’s objectives and those of the radical environmental movement are synonymous. Are they not both founded in principles that include elimination of capitalism, centralized governmental control of the economy, reduction and eventual elimination of individual freedoms, taxation and legislation designed to control human behavior, and replacement of God with a secular deity?
 
Some of the tenets of the environmental movement make sense. Recycling and conservation of nature are logical activities that we should all be mindful of. Moreover, reducing our dependence upon foreign sources of carbon-based fuels is consistent with our national security interests.

If “going green” were less a matter of politics and religious zeal and were based more fully on science and economics we could all could collaborate more effectively. Instead, it’s founded in a “feel good” ideology that makes people who drive hybrid cars think they are saving the planet, or that by banishing the incandescent light bulb people are staving off the destruction of the planet due to global warming.

Earth Day is a good time to upgrade our knowledge of the global climate, and put a few things into proper perspective, not based on a “feel good” emotion, but based on history, science, and logic.

For example, the earth has been warming since about 1650 when it reached a low point for modern history, and nearly dipped into a modern Ice Age. This episodic variance in global temperatures is well documented and was notable for the concomitant misery it produced, with declining crop yields, and contracted economic activity.

As a matter of fact, the world is now roughly the same temperature that it was in about 1000 A.D. From a historical perspective we’ve risen out of the trough that we’d been in for a few centuries, and now we enjoy the same general climatic temperatures as the Vikings over a millennium ago. Greenland used to be green and had a thriving agronomic economy, and frankly, we have no idea what an ideal average global temperature is.

There is undoubtedly some incredibly complex formula that explains weather, temperature, and climate. We don’t know what that formula is, but there are plenty of scientists who prostrate themselves at the altar of government grants and special interests who have the hubris to claim they understand the dynamic relationship between the atmospheric elements. Those are the ones who tell us to drive the hybrids and change our light bulbs so we can save the polar bears.

Since we’ve only been expanding man’s “carbon footprint” for the past 150 years or so, it should be obvious that there are other factors at play that warm the planet other than your 100 watt incandescent light bulb. After all, this third rock from the sun has vacillated from cold to hot for much longer than man has even inhabited the place. While atmospheric combinations of gases interact in ways we may never fully comprehend, ultimately the source of heat for the planet is the sun, not my SUV.

If we were omniscient and understood the atmospheric formula, there would likely be a legitimate factor in the equation representing human emission of CO2. But considering that’s what we humans exhale, it’s illogical to assume that it’s a destructive element to the atmosphere. After all, are we not part of nature as well?

It’s this very minute (approximately .000034) contribution to the formula that has so many in a frenzy believing we’ve got to do something drastic right now based on assumptions, computer models, and a series of unproven hypotheses.

It may be disconcerting to the global warming adherents that the average temperature has slowly declined during the past decade despite the continued increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. And now the global temperature is falling precipitously. All four agencies that track global temperatures report that the earth cooled by .7C in 2007. This amounts to the fastest temperature change in the instrumental record and puts us back to where we were in 1930. Maybe Time magazine will have to dust off its “The Coming Ice Age” cover from 1974.

If we would work together on economically sound energy policies focused on energy independence and scrap the alarmism, we would all be on the same page. Common sense and legitimate science need to be the basis of the dialogue, not pseudo-science alarmism.

There’s a religious-zeal gullibility that regrettably infests those who are too willing to believe the Jeremiads of the alarmists, whether it’s DDT, Y2K, or man-made global warming. Perhaps this is one of the byproducts of the secularization of America. For as the inimitable G. K. Chesterton said, “When a man ceases to believe in God, he doesn’t believe in nothing. He believes in anything.” Can you say “anthropogenic global warming?”

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Obama's Take on Iraq

By Richard Larsen
 
Published – Idaho State Journal, 04/20/08

Everyone waited with bated breath to observe the grilling on tap for General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker by members of the Senate this past week. All three Presidential candidates were in attendance at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing where Petraeus, the commander of the Multi-National Force in Iraq and Crocker, the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq testified.

While the questioning and comments by Senators McCain and Clinton reflected their respective views, as frequently articulated and micro-analyzed as they are, the comments by Senator Obama warrant additional scrutiny. His comments belie an ignorance and a moral ambivalence that should be alarming to any who have followed the developments in the Fertile Crescent.

Senator Obama began his remarks, “We all have the greatest interest in seeing a successful resolution to Iraq. We all do. And that has to be clearly stated in the record.”

That may seem innocuous enough, except when added to the context of everything else he said. Success has been carefully defined by the administration to include creation of a stable, self-sufficient government that can eventually handle its own security. Such a precondition to withdrawal would prevent Iraq from declining into a Taliban-like Afghanistan, which was a veritable cesspool of anti-American, and anti-freedom destruction-prone belligerents and malcontents, dedicated to the eradication of anything newer than the 8th century, or anyone not a devout Muslim.

Senator Obama had to state his desire for success in Iraq, even though everything he says indicates he has no desire to see such success. But he had to have it “on the record” nonetheless, qualifying all his subversive comments that were to follow.

He then stated, “I continue to believe that the original decision to go into Iraq was a massive strategic blunder (and) that the two problems that you've pointed out — al Qaeda in Iraq and increased Iranian influence in the region — are a direct result of that original decision.”

Al Qaeda chose to make Iraq a test of their battle-worthiness against the U.S. They lost. That’s why they have been fleeing Anbar and Baghdad. If anybody had a sense in 2003 that some of the Wahabbists and former Saddamites would join us to turn on Al Qaeda and rout them, nobody would have believed them. And then to learn this past two weeks that an Iraqi Shia government has turned on Muqtada al-Sadrand those who were being backed by Iran completely contradicts Obama’s statement.

Then the revelatory line by the Senator. “I also think that the surge has reduced violence, and provided breathing room. But that breathing room has not been taken the way we would all like it to be taken. I think that what’s happened in Basra is an example of Shia vs. Shia jockeying for power that underscores how complicated the political situation is there and how we still have to continue to work vigorously to resolve it. I believe that we are more likely to resolve it, if we are applying increased pressure in a measured way. I think, and this is where we disagree, that applying increased pressure in a measured way includes a timetable for withdrawal.”

This is an ignorant, or at least poorly conceived moral equivalent statement. It’s not Shia vs. Shia. He’s reduced an elected government into just another Iranian backed Shia clique. It’s not. Rather Iraq has a constitutionally elected government that’s taking on an illegitimate Shia group militia, and successfully at that. He employs a moral equivalency argument that anytime there’s violence, all parties are equally culpable. Iraq has a constitutionally elected government that is losing two to three times more security personnel than the U.S. is. They’re making the political progress necessary having met 12 of 18 benchmarks, and all Obama et al can do is criticize and attempt to delegitimize them. They’re fighting terrorists everyday on their own oil, and they’re the only ones doing so, except the Israelis, under the auspices of a legitimate constitutional government. They’re the only ones who seem willing to take on the Shia led and Iranian backed terrorists, and they get no credit for their success, only criticism from the Senator.

That same erroneous moral equivalency argument is frequently used to question why a rogue, terrorist state like Iran that’s intent on destroying its neighbors shouldn’t be allowed a nuclear weapons since the U.S., has them. It reveals a moral ineptness and vacuity.  

If benchmarks and political progress were used as a standard to determine democratic legitimacy and efficacy, our Congress would score an “F,” and we should be collectively calling for their withdrawal. Come to think about it, let’s set a withdrawal timetable for our Congress, and set the benchmark for Nov. 2008 for all the Congressmen and Senators to be withdrawn who just “don’t get it.”
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"Change" Since 2006

Published – Idaho State Journal, 04/06/08
 
A call for change makes an appealing slogan in the context of American politics. Especially when articulated with the benefit of modern teleprompter technology. Regardless of the grandiloquence of the speech and the rhetorical skills of the candidate, logic demands a step back from the polemics to analyze such pleas.
 
For example, about the time of the 2006 election, the Dow Industrial Average was near an all-time high and employees’ 401(k)’s had recovered dramatically from the 2002 lows. Unemployment was hovering near all-time lows at the 4.5% level.
 
Taxes were at 20 year lows, which led to record tax receipts at levels not seen even following the tax cuts of the Reagan era. That cash flow into the treasury precipitated by the Bush tax-cuts led to a reduction of the Federal deficit by more than 50% over predictions from just a year earlier.
 
Home valuations were up sharply, over 200% in some areas of the country in just about five years. And in spite of such dramatic real estate appreciation, inflation was hovering at near 20 year lows at under 2%.
 
At that time, consumer confidence stood at a multi-year high, and unleaded gasoline sold for an average of $2.19 per gallon.
 
The war on terror continued to protect the homeland. Who could have guessed after the attacks of 9/11 that we would not have had another major attack on American soil? Meanwhile, the incredible American military, with assistance from our intelligence agencies, has eliminated or taken into custody 95% of Al Queda’s global leadership, and several major terrorist attacks have been thwarted, including a planned attack involving 10 jumbo jets being exploded in mid-air over major American cities.
 
“Ground Zero” in the war on terror, Iraq, continued to draw jihadists from their hiding places throughout the Muslim world only to face extermination at the hands of Marines, rather than leaving them free to board planes and come to the states to wage war on us here.
 
Regrettably, since the 2006 mid-terms, we have already witnessed a great deal of “change.” Since that time consumer confidence has plummeted, the cost of gasoline has soared to over $3.00 per gallon, unemployment has spiked 10%, back up to 5%, American households have seen nearly $2 trillion in home equity and stock and mutual fund valuations evaporate,
 
What is often forgotten is the fact that Congress controls the purse strings of the country by establishing fiscal policy. The President makes suggestions, but the Congress has complete control over what’s approved and what is not. And the changes we’ve witnessed since the Democratic Congress reestablished control in 2006 have not been favorable.
 
Proposals by the two remaining Democratic candidates for President can only be expected to exacerbate an already deteriorating economic picture. Some of the deterioration we observe currently is due to cyclical factors, but some are structural due to the fiscal policy adopted by Congress.
 
Much of the increase in fuel costs is directly attributable to increased global demand, yet Congress still proves itself to be a lapdog of the environmental lobby that won’t allow us to access oil reserves on or near our own soil.
 
The tax cuts that spurred the economy over the past six years are being allowed by Congress to expire, which will add an additional tax burden of over $3,000 to the average American household.
 
Meanwhile the dollar has dropped another 10% against global currencies in part due to increased Federal spending by our profligate Congress.
 
There’s still no viable proposal by Congress to address the real cause of sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the seeds of which were planted in 1977 by President Carter’s Community Reinvestment Act. Those provisions were strengthened by the Clinton administration in 1996 which were intended to prevent a nefarious lending practice known as “redlining,” but created the undesirable effect of encouraging banks to make loans to riskier customers. The sharp appreciation of real estate values simply created an environment ripe with potential abuse of liberal credit policy.
 
Consumer confidence will not likely rebound anytime soon as long as the economy is slowing. That will only be exacerbated further if tax-cuts are allowed to expire, more taxes are levied, more regulation implemented, and proposed nationalization of some sectors like health care find footing.
 
The Bush approach to the war on terror has not been pretty, but has succeeded thus far in protecting us. That is likely to deteriorate as well, as evidenced by Speaker Pelosi’s refusal to consider legislation extending our ability to track conversations between terrorists. Proposals for premature withdrawal from Iraq will only make our future security that much more precarious.

We’ve already experienced “change” since the 2006 mid-term elections, and it isn’t good. That type of change can be perpetuated and accelerated in November. Let’s hope the nation has enough sense to realize we don’t need any more of that kind of “change.”

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Capitalism vs. the Democratic Candidates

Published – Idaho State Journal, 04/06/08
 
Ideologically, Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama are hardly distinguishable. But what they are promising to do if elected president should shock the sensibilities of any freedom loving and tax-paying American.
 
With slight variations on similar themes, they advocate nationalizing the nation’s healthcare system (nearly one fifth of the economy), and nationalizing the oil companies by absconding with their profits. They denounce successful American enterprises like WalMart even though they do more good for the average pocketbook than the government does (I think they’re jealous). Their solutions call for more centralized control by the government that, due to the profligate spending of Congress, can’t balance its own checkbook.
 
Before we consider seriously these socialistic campaign promises, we need to think through the philosophy of the capitalistic system they so vocally and vehemently denounce.
 
The market economy has created unfathomable prosperity and decade by decade, century by century miraculous feats of innovation, production, distribution, and social coordination. We owe all material prosperity, all leisure time, our health and longevity, our growing population, and nearly everything we call life itself to the free market. Capitalism alone has rescued the human race from degrading poverty, rampant sickness, and early death.
 
The thousands of diseases that are now treatable and survivable are vanquished because of the tenets of capitalism that rewards successful research with financial success, which in turn is used as the capital to find even more solutions to human ailments. Yet Clinton and Obama denounce “big pharma” for their profits, and employ a class-envy populist rhetoric to garner support among the gullible, uneducated, and financially illiterate.
 
They do the same with “big oil,” denouncing them for their profits (approximately eight cents per gallon), while we pay increasingly higher prices for a commodity they have contributed to be as high priced as it is. Oil is the fuel of capitalism, providing distribution of goods and services, and personal freedom unfathomable just a couple of generations ago, and we can’t even access the oil that U.S. companies have a claim to. China and Mexico can access the oil in the Gulf of Mexico, but we can’t because Clinton, Obama, and those of like mind won’t allow us to tap our own resources, including the Anwar oil fields in Alaska. If they really cared so much about the high price of oil, they’d allow us to access what we have in our own backyard. Global demand is only going to increase, as India and China’s demand is increasing by double-digits every year now. Supply needs to increase to meet those demands, yet Obama and Clinton tie our hands preventing the increase of supply.
 
And speaking of oil, our two biggest suppliers are Canada and Mexico, and yet Obama is threatening to revisit and renegotiate NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) that facilitates trade with those countries, unencumbered by tariffs. What do you think that will do to the price of gasoline in the States?
 
I just had to laugh when a columnist earlier in the week said of the economy, “And as usual, the Democratic candidates have better ideas on the subject than the Republican candidate does. At the very least, Obama and Hillary are trying to come up with workable solutions.” The aforementioned proposals display at best, an economic naïveté, but at worst, spell destruction of certain elements of our capitalistic system. Their proposals for increased spending by the Federal government of nearly a trillion dollars, combined with their plans for “big pharma” and “big oil,” creates an unstable and uncertain future for the American economy that currently falters on the edge of a possible recession, but with Clinton’s or Obama’s recommendations, collapses under the weight of a Federal government that may never recover. Come to think about it, their proposals would increase Federal spending by about the same percentage as what two of our commissioners increased Bannock County spending this year. If they’re not all related, at least their detached-from-reality ideology of bigger and more expensive government is.
 
And how do Obama and Clinton propose financing that big of a spending increase? Bingo! More taxes! This would be humorous if it weren’t so frightening. They both voted for the stimulus package which returns $800 to $1,600 to each household this summer to stimulate the economy, so they obviously have at least a modicum of understanding that the consumer drives the economy. But the consumer can only drive the economy if he has the money to spend. Combine their proposals of increased income taxes, and increased capital gains taxes, and we all have less to spend, which means the economy under their direction would decline precipitously for years.
 
The solution to an economy that is slowing is never to increase the size of government, or taxes, or nationalizing or penalizing the great industries that make ours the economic envy of the world. If the economy matters to you, neither Obama nor Clinton will be your candidate.
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